What Would a recession mean for developers?

With markets in a slump, many of us are concerned a recession could be right around the corner. The NASDAQ is already down 27% so far in 2022. Heck, maybe we’re already in the middle of a recession.

If you are a developer, or are in the middle of learning to code, you may be justifiably wondering whether or not a recession will have an impact on your personal career.

🔗 WAIT, WHAT RECESSION?

Well, no one really knows where the markets are going in the future, but things are getting rocky quickly. Y Combinator, arguably the most successful tech startup accelerator wrote a letter to the founders they have funded where they say:

No one can predict how bad the economy will get, but things don’t look good. The safe move is to plan for the worst. If the current situation is as bad as the last two economic downturns, the best way to prepare is to cut costs and extend your runway within the next 30 days.

I have no idea if the market is going down another 20%, is going to rebound to all-time highs by the end of the year, or if we’ll trade sideways for the next few months. If I were you, I’d be wary of anyone who is telling you that they do know what is going to happen, especially if there is a price tag attached to the information. What I do know is that there is a sentiment sweeping across the tech industry that has company leaders thinking about tightening their budgets to weather a storm - whether or not the storm comes.

WHEN AN INDUSTRY IS FLUSH WITH CASH, IT’S EASIER TO FIND JOBS IN THAT INDUSTRY

So, assuming the industry won’t be what it once was, what does that mean for those of us who work in tech? Well, it means that the insanely-hot hiring market will cool down a bit. The days of recruiters pounding down your door if you have 6-months of experience listed on LinkedIn might be over.

Less investment money means fewer startups and fewer “series-X” fundraising rounds. Less cash in a business’s pocket means slower growth, and slower growth means less hiring.

🔗 WHAT KIND OF DEVELOPERS WOULD A RECESSION IMPACT THE MOST?

Junior developers have always had a harder time finding work than mid-level or senior developers. Frankly, that first job has always been hard to land, but landing any job once you have some experience under your belt has been much easier historically. I think entry-level developers will unfortunately be disproportionately impacted by a “tech recession”. Now more than ever, the competition among entry-level devs will be fierce. It might not be enough anymore to attend a 12-week bootcamp and come out the other side making $80k.

Second, I suspect that high-growth startups will be hit harder than more established companies. Companies that are profitable will likely be able to take advantage of the market downturn and pick up talent on the cheap. Companies relying entirely on outside investment will have to go through layoffs or at least slow that pace with which they snap up developers.

🔗 DON’T PANIC

Don’t jump ship on development! While the kombucha-on-tap and ping-pong in the office might not be as prevalent, I think developers will still be much better off than most other white collar workers. I haven’t been comparing programming careers to other careers, I’ve been comparing a hypothetical short-term future for developers to what developers have had for the last decade.

Even more, we might all end up being wrong about this recession business. In the beginning of 2020, the stock market ripped down with so much force that companies got spooked and had giant rounds of layoffs. Just a few months later, the biggest market rally in recent history began, which resulted in arguably the strongest market for developers ever.

🔗 WHAT CAN I DO TO PROTECT MYSELF FROM A MARKET DOWNTURN?

Put simply, you should get better at your job. This is always good advice, it just becomes more important when competition for the same jobs gets fierce.

• If you’ve been putting off learning a new technology that interests you, make it happen

• Brush up on CS fundamentals, especially if you never went to school for CS

• Build some side-projects, they will bolster your resume

• For the same reason, consider contributing to some open-source for learning and internet points

• Think about your current job situation. Is your company doing well? If not, there’s no shame in casually looking for something new while staying employed

• If you’re in the middle of learning to code, don’t stop! The bar might be slightly higher, and you may need to spend more time on CS concepts to pass those pesky interviews, but this industry isn’t going away.

Technology is at the center of everything we do. There are very few products released these days that don’t have software involved at some level. I’m convinced the mid-to-long-term outlook for developers remains extremely bright, and the near-term isn’t too gloomy.