How Much Will AI Help in the Next Pandemic?

Experts warn that the next global pandemic, dubbed "Disease X," is not a question of if, but when. Forecasts suggest there’s a one-in-four chance of a major outbreak, similar to COVID-19, within the next decade. The fear is real—millions died from COVID-19, and the prospect of a future pandemic looms large. But could artificial intelligence (AI) be the key to mitigating the next global health crisis?

Researchers at the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), are working on an AI-driven early warning system aimed at predicting future pandemics. This effort is part of the US National Science Foundation’s Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention program, which funds research aimed at identifying, modeling, and mitigating the effects of potential pandemics.

A key part of this project is a database of over 2.3 billion U.S. social media posts, collected since 2015. Prof. Chen Li, a lead researcher at UCI, explains that AI can scan social media streams to identify early indicators of outbreaks. By analyzing posts, the system can predict upcoming health crises, track the spread of disease, and evaluate the impact of public health interventions. "We’ve developed a machine-learning model that identifies significant events, like the onset of epidemics, from social media," says Prof. Li.

However, there are challenges. The system heavily relies on data from X (formerly Twitter), which is not accessible in every country. Prof. Li acknowledges the current focus is primarily within the U.S. "We’re working to address data gaps and biases as we expand to other regions."

AI is also playing a significant role in monitoring virus mutations. Developed by Harvard Medical School and the University of Oxford, an AI tool called EVEScape ranks new variants of viruses like coronavirus every two weeks. The tool has made accurate predictions not only about COVID-19 but also about HIV and influenza. According to Nikki Thadani, one of EVEScape's developers, the AI provides early insights into virus mutations, which can be useful for vaccine manufacturers and researchers working on treatments.

The pharmaceutical industry is already reaping the benefits of AI in this area. Jim Wetherall, Vice President of Data Science and AI at AstraZeneca, says AI has significantly accelerated the discovery of new antibodies, which are critical for vaccine development. Using AI, the company can screen thousands of antibodies in a matter of days, compared to months using traditional methods. This capability, Wetherall notes, is crucial for staying ahead of rapidly mutating viruses like COVID-19.

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which funded EVEScape, views AI as an indispensable tool in preparing for future pandemics. Dr. In-Kyu Yoon, director of programs and innovative technology at CEPI, emphasizes that AI speeds up pandemic preparedness, but cautions that AI’s effectiveness depends on the quality of the data it receives. "AI is a tool, but it can only be as good as the information it’s fed."

Despite the promise of AI, there are ethical and practical hurdles to overcome. Dr. Philip AbdelMalik of the World Health Organization (WHO) stresses that AI should not be expected to make decisions independently. AI can highlight potential threats and help track dangerous misinformation, but it is still up to humans to interpret the data and take action. Dr. AbdelMalik also warns against the dangers of biased data, saying, "If the data input is flawed, the output will be too."

Ultimately, while AI is an exciting tool in pandemic prevention, experts agree that human factors—like trust and cooperation—are just as important. "We’re better off now than we were three years ago," says Dr. AbdelMalik, "but technology alone isn’t enough. We need stronger relationships and better information sharing to truly be prepared for the next pandemic."

As AI continues to develop, it promises to play a crucial role in detecting, preventing, and managing future pandemics. However, the success of these efforts will depend not just on technological advancements but on global collaboration and the trust we place in each other.