Rethinking What We Know: Gettier Problems and Humble Decision-Making

In both our professional and personal lives, we often feel confident that we know the right answer. We believe we've done the research, gathered the evidence, and reached a solid conclusion. But what if, despite this confidence, we're still wrong? Not because of a failure to think things through, but because of unseen factors we didn't account for. This uncertainty can catch us by surprise and challenge our understanding of what it really means to know something.

This is more than an abstract question. It's a real-world issue affecting everyone, from engineers to business leaders to decision-makers. It's about understanding that knowledge and certainty can be elusive and that adopting a more flexible mindset - one rooted in humility - can lead to better outcomes.

The Gettier Problem: A New Lens on What It Means to "Know" Something

At first glance, the concept of knowledge seems straightforward: to know something, we need three things—a justified true belief (JTB). For centuries, philosophers have agreed that to know something, you need:

Justification: You have good reasons or evidence for your belief.
Truth: The belief you hold must align with reality.
Belief: You must actually hold that thought to be true.

This framework is familiar to many of us, whether we realize it or not. In business, for example, we justify our decisions with data, and when those decisions lead to successful outcomes, we assume we knew the right answer all along. But in 1963, philosopher Edmund Gettier introduced a challenge to this view of knowledge, revealing that even when all three conditions are met, we might still be wrong.

Gettier showed that it's possible to hold a justified true belief and still not truly know something because of hidden factors or coincidences that distort our understanding. These are Gettier-like situations, where we appear to be right but only by accident. This forces us to reconsider what it means to really "know" something and introduces a critical lesson for anyone making decisions in complex environments.

Real-World Application: Gettier-like Situations in Decision-Making

Gettier's insight is not just an academic exercise - it plays out in real-life situations, particularly in decision-making roles. Imagine this scenario:

You've just overseen a major product launch. Your team analyzed the market, gathered data, and made a strategic decision to emphasize a specific feature, believing it would drive new customer signups. After the launch, there was a sharp spike in new users. At first glance, it looks like your decision was spot-on. But then, you discover something unexpected: a big competitor experienced a service outage at the same time, driving users to your product by coincidence.

In such a case, your belief that the feature would drive signups was justified. It aligned with the outcome, making it true. But the real reason for the success was external, something you didn't predict. This is a Gettier-like situation - you were right, but not for the reasons you thought. These moments remind us that even well-founded decisions can be influenced by unseen factors, and they highlight the importance of staying open to new information and feedback.

The Pitfalls of Certainty: Why "Strong Opinions, Loosely Held" Matters

When faced with uncertainty, many people turn to the idea of "strong opinions, loosely held". This concept suggests that we should form strong, well-reasoned opinions but be willing to change them when new evidence emerges. It's a sound philosophy, but it can also be misunderstood.

Some take this phrase to mean that opinions can be formed quickly and dropped or shifted at the first sign of doubt. However, this approach can lead to superficial decision-making, where opinions are adopted without deep thought and changed without sufficient reason. In reality, strong opinions should be built on solid evidence, reflection, and analysis—what we might call justified true beliefs.

At the same time, holding opinions loosely means recognizing that even strong foundations can be flawed. The possibility of Gettier-like situations means we should remain humble, open to new data, and willing to adjust our thinking when necessary. This is the balance that "strong opinions, loosely held" seeks to strike: confidence without stubbornness, decisiveness without rigidity.

Navigating Uncertainty: Building Humility into Decision-Making

In both work and life, decision-making often involves acting with incomplete information. Knowing everything upfront is impossible, but we can still make better choices by embracing epistemic humility, recognizing that our knowledge is always limited and that we could be wrong.

Here's how to apply this mindset:

Start with a Strong Foundation (JTB): Justified true beliefs offer a practical guide for forming strong opinions. Before reaching a conclusion, ensure it's built on solid evidence, whether you're deciding on a business strategy, a technical solution, or a personal choice. But remember that, as Gettier demonstrated, even this foundation isn't foolproof.
Stay Open to Contradictions (Gettier): Once you've formed an opinion, remain open to new evidence or perspectives that might challenge it. Be ready to revisit your beliefs if circumstances change or if new data emerges that reveals hidden variables.
Encourage Open Dialogue (Strong Opinions, Loosely Held): Collaboration and feedback are vital to avoiding blind spots. Inviting others to challenge your assumptions and provide alternative viewpoints creates a richer decision-making environment. This is also where the "loosely held" part of the equation comes into play: Strong opinions are necessary to drive action, but openness to change ensures they're flexible enough to adapt when needed.

This approach isn't just for leaders - it's for anyone making decisions, whether in engineering, product management, or daily life. Epistemic humility helps us navigate the unknown by keeping us open to learning and improvement, even when we think we're certain.

Conclusion: Leading with Humility and Confidence

The Gettier problem and the concept of "strong opinions, loosely held" teach us an important lesson about the nature of knowledge and decision-making. In a complex and unpredictable world, even the most well-reasoned decisions can be affected by factors beyond our control. By building a solid foundation for our beliefs, staying open to new evidence, and fostering open dialogue, we can navigate uncertainty with both humility and confidence.

Whether you're leading a team, writing code, or simply making everyday decisions, recognizing the limits of your knowledge is a strength, not a weakness. It allows you to adapt, learn, and grow - qualities that make you a better decision-maker, a better leader, and a better collaborator.