UN monitors asteroid with a tiny chance of hitting Earth

UN planetary defense organizations are closely monitoring an asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has stated that there is almost a 99% chance it will safely pass Earth on December 22, 2032, but a possible impact "cannot yet be entirely ruled out."

The probability of the asteroid, named 2024 YR4, impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, is currently estimated at 1.3%.

Dr. Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society says he is "not panicking or losing sleep over it."

"There is no need for alarm," he said. "The thing about this kind of event is that historically, they tend to go away when the calculations are refined."

We need to stay alert and provide astronomers with the resources they need to track these threats so we can take action as soon as possible."

YR4 was detected on 27 December 2024. Astronomers calculated that it is between 40m and 90m across. If it were to hit Earth, it would have the power of a nuclear bomb and cause severe damage if the impact occurred in a populated area.

However, it is much more likely that YR4 would fall into the ocean or a remote part of the planet. It is too far from Earth, and there are too many uncertainties at this stage to determine where a potential impact could occur in the unlikely event of a collision.

Since early January, astronomers have been using telescopes to calculate the asteroid's size and trajectory more precisely. YR4 is now rated at level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale: "a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public." A collision is only certain when it reaches levels 8, 9, or 10, with the numbers rising in line with the likely damage.