Deprivation and the latest MRP

More in Common did an MRP, based on polling 16,000 people, which you can find here. It found that if a General Election were held today, Reform UK would get the largest of any party, at 180 seats.

Obviously, an election won’t be held today. But it confirms research that Labour are presently losing most among economically vulnerable voters.

I was interested in breaking this down by deprivation decile, which you can find below. It shows similar trends to before, Conservatives/Lib Dems doing best with affluent voters, Labour with deprived - but with the rise of the Reform UK Party, in addition.

You can also see the vote share changes, here. Mostly it shows that deprived Labour voters are leaving the party, and Reform are gaining among deprived voters.

Below is also the breakdown by the British Nations (NI was not included in the MoreinCommon analysis, due to a low sample size). The trends are a bit noisier given the sample size of constituencies is smaller in Scotland and Wales, so I have broken them into Quantiles.

Vote Share (GB Nations)

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Vote Share Change (GB Nations)

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