What Really Lowers Your Score? Modeling the Truth Behind Strokes Gained

🏌️ What Really Lowers Your Score?

I’ve always been curious about what really lowers golf scores.

Not just what feels important — but what the data actually says.

So I started building a model.
And I’m already learning things that surprised me.

---

📊 Not All Strokes Are Equal

Strokes Gained is a powerful stat.
But at its core, it assumes one thing:

A stroke gained is a stroke gained, no matter where you earn it.

That might be true in theory.
But what if how you gain or lose strokes matters more than we think?

---

🧠 You've Heard the Debate:

“Drive for show, putt for dough.”
“The driver is the most important club in the bag.”

Depending on who you ask, the most valuable club in your bag changes.

I wanted to know what the data says — not just the tour chatter.

So I built a model and ran it on 7 full seasons of PGA Tour data, from 2015 to 2022, using round-level strokes gained stats and computed scoring differentials.

---

📈 Early Results from the PGA Tour

Here’s what I found:

• ✅ Approach play is the most consistent driver of lower scores

• ✅ Putting is right behind — and sometimes just as important

• ✅ Off-the-tee skill helps, but contributes less directly

• ✅ Short game plays a supporting role, not a starring one

That’s the big picture.
But when you zoom in on individual players, the story gets more interesting.

---

🔍 Everyone Scores Differently

I ran individual models on dozens of PGA players — and the variation was striking.

• 🧨 Some players like Erik van Rooyen and Daniel Chopra rely heavily on Off-the-Tee or Short Game performance to lower scores

• 🎯 Others like Victor Perez or Mark Wilson live and die by the putter

• 🛠 Players like Rory McIlroy and Sean O’Hair show balanced, all-around scoring profiles

Every scorer has a different recipe.
And the model shows how they get it done.

---

🗣 How You Can Help

Now I want to go further.

I'm starting to collect amateur and VR golf data to see how these patterns shift at lower skill levels.

• Are drivers more important when you’re missing more greens?

• Does putting get messier as you move away from elite ranks?

• Do different skill levels need different practice priorities?

If you're a golfer — real-world or VR — and want to help, I’d love your input.

Even just a few rounds of data — Score, Differential, and basic strokes gained stats — can help expand the model.

Want to contribute?
A simple upload form is coming soon. Until then, feel free to reach out.

---

🧠 What’s Coming Next

In future posts, I’ll be sharing:

• How PGA Tour players actually score — by skill, not by myth

• What patterns emerge at the amateur level

• What this means for your practice, your stats, and your game

This is just the beginning.
Let’s find out what really matters — and maybe help a few golfers score lower along the way.

---

📝 Want to follow along or contribute your own rounds? You can find me at shankproof.dev or drop a comment below.
👊