Aussie Elections 2025

With the final YouGov MRP out for the Australian Elections, it seems that Labor have the advantage.

Running a similar analysis I did on the Canadian Election, this is what I got for the Australian Elections.

Swinging Labor

Areas with younger adults, areas with many flats, apartments or attached dwellings are swinging Labor. So are areas with lots of people working in service industries (accommodation, food), administrative / clerical roles, creative arts, and professional categories. Indications also show areas with people that have long term health conditions, including higher rates of depression, mental health issues are swinging Labor.

Swinging Coalition

Areas swinging Coalition are older adults - people 50-80. They are more areas where people are more likely to be married, retired, or have large families.

Labor Strongholds

Labor voters tend to live in areas where people are in their 30s or 40s, educated areas, and areas where employment are cover a broad range of occupations - including administrative, trades, transport and IT. They likely live in areas with higher marriage rates and with young families. A section live in areas with higher unemployment or lower incomes.

Coalition Strongholds

Coalition voters tend to be less diverse - majority Australian born areas, English speaking areas, majority Christian areas. They tend to represent areas with older married couples - those in their 50s and 60s, with children, with full time employment. They tend to represent those in management roles or in vocational roles.

Green Strongholds

Green voters tend to be live in areas where people are aged 18-34 years old. And areas where people are either full time students, or have graduate diplomas. They tend to represent areas where the main vocation is in creative, education or service sectors. They are more likely to live in group households or non-family households. They are likely to live in areas that do minimal domestic work, and have few children.

Independent Strongholds

These voters tend to live in high income areas, or areas which are retired, elderly voters (70-80), with high representation of professional occupations. They tend to live in highly educated areas. They tend not to live in blue-collar areas.

Source Data