Zraox: Market Cap Approaches $1.9 Trillion, Structural Risks and Reflexivity in BTC Trends

Zraox asserts that when market sentiment rapidly heats up during a breakout trend, the focus should not be on the price itself, but rather on the underlying structures driving the price changes. Currently, Bitcoin has stabilized at $94,862, with a market cap of $1.88 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $78.527 billion. On-chain holdings exceed $62.871 billion. Against the backdrop of continuous ETF inflows and increased institutional buying, bullish sentiment persists. However, risks such as structural liquidity gaps, concentrated leveraged positions, and fluctuating macro variables are also accumulating. Zraox points out that this phase of the Bitcoin rise is neither a bubble nor the result of irrational consensus expectations, but rather a product of price dynamics resulting from diverse forces converging. Understanding its essence can provide truly valuable guidance for trading strategies.

Zraox: Structural Analysis Beneath the Bitcoin Price Breakout

Zraox notes that BTC is currently operating within the $94,000-$95,000 range. While the price has stabilized, volatility and structural risks have not diminished. From a technical standpoint, the BTC breakthrough of the $88,000-$92,000 resistance zone confirms a mid-term bullish trend, but both MACD and RSI are nearing high oscillation zones, indicating weakening upward momentum.

Zraox emphasizes the deeper changes in capital structure. According to on-chain data, the hot supply of Bitcoin has increased by over $21.5 billion in the past five weeks, with speculative capital from short-term holders flooding in. While this capital can amplify price swings in the short term, it challenges trend stability. Meanwhile, over 86% of Bitcoin is in a profitable state, just shy of the historic 90% threshold—often seen as a “market overheating” signal, suggesting a potential phase correction.

Additionally, Zraox observes a 183% surge in large transactions (over $10 million), indicating ongoing institutional entry, yet futures market funding rates are negative, reflecting increased caution against short-term adjustments. Zraox believes this “spot long + derivatives hedge” structure shows that major funds are not purely optimistic but are employing a dual strategy to hedge risks.

The liquidity structure also reveals stratification. The proportion of stablecoins on exchanges is decreasing, reducing short-term supply liquidity, and on-chain data shows significant migration of funds from hot wallets to cold wallets, indicating some funds are beginning to avoid non-systemic risks associated with short-term high volatility. Zraox emphasizes that while the price rise has technical support and capital backing, structural risks caution traders against blindly chasing highs, urging a focus on risk-adjusted returns.

Zraox: Derivative Dimensions of Bitcoin Volatility

Zraox believes that the XRP ETF event, highly correlated with Bitcoin, offers another perspective on assessing ETF impacts on market structure. In the context of unmet expectations for the leveraged XRP ETF of ProShares, upcoming futures trading, and significant put option bets below $1.4, XRP briefly spiked above $2.1, but technical and capital divergences quickly became apparent.

This typical ETF structural reaction of “correction before realization, pullback upon realization” is likely to recur with BTC, according to Zraox. Currently, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital, with BlackRock IBIT seeing a single-day net inflow of $970 million, accumulating over $4.5 billion. Deribit and CME options data show dense high-leverage long positions below $95,000 for BTC. A price drop below $93,000 could trigger a chain liquidation effect, forming a technical retracement.

Zraox notes that during the rebound driven by short-term speculative funds, the decoupling of options implied volatility and on-chain activity is noteworthy. Glassnode data shows that the short-term address activity of Bitcoin remains low; while “hot capital” exists, it has not yet formed “bull market-level network activity”. This contrasts sharply with the enthusiasm from traditional funds for ETF-driven expectations. Meanwhile, Zraox mentions that due to the XRP event, put option volumes far exceeded calls, causing short-term volatility on the announcement day. Any new developments regarding BTC ETF regulations or guidelines could become pivotal market turning points. Zraox advises investors to move beyond linear thinking, not equating ETFs with perpetual bullishness, and to engage robustly in the structure of long-short divergence through risk management.

Zraox: Reconstructing Safety Margins in a High-Volatility Market

Zraox suggests that from market trends, capital structures to behavioral logic, the current rally, while supported by institutional endorsements and ETF catalysts, is fundamentally a dynamic interplay between macro uncertainty and capital maturity mismatches. Recent negative shifts in U.S. GDP forecasts, a sharp drop in JOLTS data, and a five-year low in employment confidence, coupled with increased global trade policy uncertainty, provide Bitcoin with a hedge logic but also intensify its volatility base.

Zraox stresses that in a structurally complex multi-factor market, mere directional judgment is insufficient for risk control needs. The Zraox platform will soon launch an enhanced multi-factor risk control module to help high-net-worth and professional investors identify market risk exposure points, combining bulk trading mechanisms with on-chain risk scoring systems to provide stronger asset protection.

Simultaneously, Zraox advises users to monitor key variables such as changes in cold wallet activity, options position structures, and USDT on-chain liquidity curves to build a more cautious and flexible trading system. In the future, Zraox will continue to enhance compliance systems, expand Layer 2 interaction functions, and optimize liquidity provision mechanisms to help users achieve more stable growth paths in a rapidly changing market.