Price Sensitivity and the Stockbase Cliff Crisis: Insights into the 2025 Thai International School Summer Camp Market from China

Introduction

Thailand has long been one of the most favored outbound travel destinations for Chinese tourists, especially in the realm of youth summer camps and international school education experiences, attracting significant participation from middle-class Chinese families. Following the gradual reopening of borders after the COVID-19 pandemic, institutions and international schools held optimistic expectations for market recovery, with strong enrollment performance in Thai international school summer camps throughout 2023 and 2024. However, by 2025, enrollment figures suddenly declined, and market responsiveness weakened sharply, shattering the optimistic forecasts held by schools and industry stakeholders. Why did the market, seemingly stable on the surface, experience a sudden “cliff-like” drop? Was it triggered by an isolated incident, or was it the concentrated eruption of long-accumulating structural risks? This paper seeks to provide a multidimensional analysis of the shifts in the Chinese market for Thai summer camps in 2025 and to offer forward-looking risk alerts.

A Snapshot of Chinese Tourism to Thailand

Despite Chinese tourists still accounting for the largest share of international arrivals to Thailand in the first quarter of 2025, reaching approximately 1.33 million visitors (Nation Thailand, April 11, 2025), data from April shows that the monthly number of Chinese tourists dropped to just around 317,000. In the same month, arrivals from Malaysia reached approximately 363,000, making it the top source country and pushing China into second place (Nation Thailand, May 3, 2025).

Looking back at the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, China had consistently been Thailand’s largest source of international tourists, with visitor numbers far surpassing those of any other country. In 2022, as cross-border flights from China gradually resumed, Thailand’s once highly anticipated tourism demand failed to fully rebound. In 2023, Chinese arrivals to Thailand totaled 3.4 million, still lower than Malaysia’s 4.4 million (Associated Press, 2024, January 29). The situation improved somewhat in 2024, with Chinese tourist numbers nearly doubling and once again taking the top position, reaching 6.7 million visitors that year (Bangkok Post, January 2, 2025). However, as previously noted, the sluggish performance in early 2025 suggests that the Chinese market poses another significant challenge for Thai tourism this year.

A recent market survey revealed that since the fourth quarter of 2024, Thailand had failed to remain in the top three preferred outbound destinations among Chinese travelers. By the first quarter of 2025, it had even fallen to seventh place. The report attributes this shift to safety concerns, including high-profile incidents involving Chinese nationals, as well as evolving preferences among repeat travelers (Jing Daily, April 5, 2025).

Economic, Policy, and Media Factors Affecting Chinese Participation

The sharp market fluctuations are closely linked to China’s recent economic and policy factors that often manifest through shifts in public discourse and media narratives.

(1) Economic Pressures

China is currently facing mounting structural economic pressure. Between late 2024 and early 2025, the country’s GDP growth rate consistently fell below 5%, a noticeable decline compared to pre-pandemic levels. The prolonged downturn in the real estate market has led to a visible “asset contraction” effect, with many middle-class families experiencing both a decrease in perceived household wealth and tighter cash flow. Meanwhile, youth unemployment—specifically among urban residents aged 16 to 24 who are not in school—remained above 16% throughout the first quarter of 2025 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, April 2025). These macroeconomic headwinds have significantly dampened overall household consumption confidence, especially with outbound travel. Vision Education’s interactions with hundreds of Chinese parents confirmed this trend, with perceived financial pressure in 2025 notably exceeding that of 2024.

Among the target consumer segment, particularly middle-class and highly educated families, who traditionally form the core customer base for Thai summer camps, two major behavioral shifts have emerged:

Heightened risk aversion: These families have become increasingly sensitive to the safety conditions of destination countries, preferring those with political stability, reliable healthcare systems, and language accessibility, or opting to forgo international camps altogether.

Stronger cost-benefit calculation: Consumption decisions have grown more rational and value-driven, with parents actively comparing airfare, accommodation quality, and overall program value across destinations.

(2) Policy Influences

The most significant policy factor influencing outbound travel behavior stems from the Chinese government’s strategic focus on expanding domestic demand (扩大内需).

For example, the National Development Strategy for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022–2035), jointly issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, clearly states:

“Firmly implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and cultivating a complete domestic demand system is a necessary choice for accelerating the construction of a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulations. It is also a strategic decision to promote the country’s long-term development and lasting stability.” (Central Committee & State Council, 2022, para. 3)

Similarly, the 14th Five-Year Plan for Tourism Development emphasizes:

“Constructing a new development paradigm is conducive to leveraging the tourism sector’s unique advantages. It also places important demands on the sector to help expand domestic demand. Given the tourism industry’s wide reach, strong driving force, and high openness, it should become a key engine for national economic growth. Reform and opening-up must be deepened to fully unleash the potential of domestic consumption, build a strong domestic market, and ensure smooth economic circulation.” (State Council, 2022, para. 15)

The 2025 Government Work Report (State Council, March 5, 2025) emphasized:

“The government’s key tasks for 2025 …. include: (1) vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand. Efforts must be made to better integrate consumption and investment, accelerate the resolution of weak links in domestic demand—particularly in consumption—and ensure that domestic demand becomes the primary engine and stabilizing anchor for economic growth.” (para. 28–30)

Additionally, outbound travel among civil servants and employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continues to be subject to internal reporting or approval mechanisms, limiting participation from this traditionally high-spending demographic. In some cases, employees are required to surrender their passports to their units for safekeeping. The government’s “non-essential, non-urgent travel discouraged” guidance, initiated during the COVID-19 period, remains deeply embedded in public consciousness. As a result, some families who would otherwise be ideal participants in overseas summer programs have opted instead for domestic educational tours and study camps.

(3) Media and Public Discourse

China’s commitment to expanding domestic demand is not only reflected in formal policy but also increasingly reinforced through public discourse and media framing. With the tacit approval of government authorities, both mainstream and social media platforms play an active role in shaping travel-related decisions. One indirect method of discouraging outbound tourism is through repeated amplification of the risks associated with international travel. Platforms such as Rednote (小红书) and Douyin (TikTok Chinese Version, 抖音) have become the primary sources of travel information for Chinese families. In this environment, the perceived “opinion climate” surrounding a destination, particularly concerning safety risks, has become a critical factor influencing market behavior.

Negative media narratives affecting Thailand’s tourism industry continue to surface periodically, injecting significant uncertainty into the market.

In early 2023, several Chinese social media influencers posted videos and articles alleging that certain entertainment venues in Thailand, such as male model restaurants, were involved in organ trafficking targeting Chinese tourists. This so-called “kidney-harvesting” (噶腰子) rumor quickly spread on Weibo, Rednote, and Douyin, triggering widespread fear and panic. Although Thai authorities promptly issued statements to debunk the claims, the incident nonetheless inflicted considerable reputational damage on Thailand’s image (Tencent News, March 30, 2023). During the spring months of 2023, many Chinese parents canceled summer camp reservations or requested refunds from schools and hotels due to heightened safety concerns, leading to financial disputes and reputational harm within the education travel sector.

In January 2025, Chinese actor Wang Xing went missing while filming in Thailand. He was later discovered to have been lured from Bangkok Airport and trafficked to a scam compound near the Thai-Myanmar border. The case drew national attention on Chinese social media and raised alarms about personal safety. As a result, many prospective tourists reconsidered or canceled travel plans to Thailand (Lianhe Zaobao, January 11, 2025).

Such public sentiment shifts are not limited to Thailand. In March 2023, numerous Douyin users posted videos exposing the harsh realities of low-cost European tour packages, including mandatory shopping stops and poor accommodations. The resulting outcry significantly impacted the willingness of Chinese travelers to visit Europe in the following months. In early 2024, shortly after Singapore granted visa-free access to Chinese citizens, a series of viral posts described tourists being fined for minor infractions. The satirical poem “Visa-free doesn’t mean cost-free. Between middle class and bankruptcy, there’s only one Singapore” quickly gained traction on Chinese social platforms (Jiupai News, 2024), reinforcing Singapore’s image as a punitive travel environment.

Since 2024, Japan has seen a surge in Chinese tourist arrivals, yet this has coincided with rising reports in the Chinese media of random violent attacks occurring there. These stories have created hesitancy among many would-be travelers, especially families considering Japan as a safe educational or leisure destination. As one veteran in the Chinese travel charter industry joked during an interview, “Whenever a destination gets hot in China, negative news about it tends to follow.”

In summary, while there is no formal policy banning outbound travel, a sustained media climate that subtly discourages overseas consumption has taken shape in Chinese society. This guidance—whether implicit or explicit—continues to suppress interest in destinations like Thailand and constrains the growth potential of related markets.

Summary of Vision Education’s 2025 Thai Summer Camp Enrollment Trends

As the leading agency for international school summer camp enrollment in both Thailand and Singapore during 2023 and 2024, Vision Education has maintained continuous internal monitoring of market data. While most international schools experienced solid enrollment performance over the past two years, a dramatic collapse in 2025’s registration figures has emerged—a shift that many Thai international schools are now keenly aware of.

As of early May 2025, based on internal data and year-over-year comparisons, Vision Education estimates that the total number of Chinese students enrolling in Thai international school summer camps in 2025 will drop to just half or even one-third of the levels seen in 2023 and 2024.

Price Sensitivity and the Stockbase Cliff Crisis: Why Did the Market Collapse So Suddenly in 2025?

The sharp downturn in 2025 was no coincidence—it had been brewing for years.

Looking back at the Chinese summer camp market in 2023, one phrase stands out: “revenge travel”. After three years of outbound travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, many Chinese families began planning their summer arrangements as early as March 2023, eager to compensate for lost time.

By 2024, however, a noticeable shift had occurred. Parents became far more hesitant in their decision-making. One of the main reasons was price sensitivity. Not because families could no longer afford camps, but because they had become more frugal and inclined to delay payment as long as possible. Several enrollment surges in 2024 occurred right before early-bird pricing deadlines, when families rushed to lock in discounted rates at the last minute.

In this context, I introduce a key hypothesis: the Stockbase Cliff Crisis. This term describes a condition in which the number of newly interested families falls consistently below the number of families that have already participated, creating a heavy reliance on repeat customers. As this existing base is gradually depleted or loses interest, the market eventually reaches a tipping point—a sudden, cliff-like drop in enrollment, leading to serious operational and financial instability. This phenomenon is not limited to the summer camp sector but can apply to any industry dependent on sustained consumer attention, such as tourism and international school admissions.

The formation of this crisis is marked by both a time lag and psychological inertia. The peak in 2023 masked the stagnation of new customer growth. In 2024, hesitation, price comparisons, and deferred decision-making emerged as early warning signs. On the surface, many camps still met their enrollment targets that year, but the marginal cost of acquisition increased, and total participation quietly declined. In 2025, this trend became unmistakable: registration started late, and the expected surge in sign-ups never materialized. The root cause was clear—the pool of interested families had dried up. After two to three years without sufficient new engagement, the cliff emerged.

What’s more concerning is that the Stockbase Cliff Crisis may compound over time through the following mechanisms:

Price undercutting (“price wars”): In the scramble to attract a shrinking pool of prospects, schools and agents resort to discounts and added perks. This not only undermines long-term brand equity but also trains parents to delay registration, expecting better deals later.

Service model deterioration: With unpredictable enrollment and lower revenue, some camps are forced to cut costs, reducing staff, merging age groups, or downsizing activities, leading to a decline in customer satisfaction.

Marketing turns defensive: Instead of expanding outreach, marketing teams focus on retaining the base and minimizing loss, exhausting resources without generating new leads.

Strained agent-school partnerships: With fewer students, schools renegotiate commissions and terms, placing stress on long-standing agency relationships.

In the foreseeable future, the Stockbase Cliff Crisis is no longer just a data problem—it is a strategic and structural challenge for any brand seeking sustainability. While various sources have predicted that Chinese tourism to Thailand will fully rebound by 2026 (Khaosod English, 2025; Nation Thailand, 2025; Oxford Economics, 2025; Travel and Tour World, 2025), I and the Vision Education team—based on continuous communication with Chinese families and careful observation of economic indicators—urge caution. Thai international schools should reassess their assumptions and adopt more conservative, diversified planning for their summer programs in the years to come.

Conclusion

The sharp decline in participation from Chinese families in Thailand’s 2025 summer camp market was not triggered by a single incident, but rather by the cumulative impact of shifting consumption structures, policy-driven behavioral changes, and an evolving media and opinion climate. The emergence of the Stockbase Cliff Crisis signals that, without timely strategic adjustments, the market may continue to face prolonged risks, ranging from shrinking interest pools and delayed enrollment to deteriorating service quality and weakened trust between schools and their recruitment partners.

In light of these challenges, I offer the following recommendations for international schools and their collaborators:

Reset market expectations: Move away from the belief that summer camp enrollment will naturally rebound. Instead, establish more realistic, data-driven enrollment targets.

Prioritize early-stage engagement: Begin building awareness and nurturing interest as early as the fall season. Utilize online events, virtual tours, and parent seminars to reach and deepen relationships with potential families.

Diversify product structures: Continue innovating in camp design by offering programs with stronger perceived value and varying price points to cater to families with different sensitivities to costs.

Boost referral conversion: Strengthen incentives for returning families and encourage peer referrals to expand the organic reach of your core audience.

Enhance sensitivity to “policy + media + economy” signals: Maintain a real-time monitoring system so that marketing pace, messaging, and contingency plans can be adjusted promptly in response to emerging external risks.

In a climate filled with uncertainty, only those organizations with forward-looking strategies and adaptive operational models will be able to navigate the cliff and achieve sustained success over the long term.

Appendix: Vision Education Enrollment Data Analysis for Thai International School Summer Camps (2023–2024)

The following analysis is based on internal data collected by Vision Education (2025), focusing on summer camp registrations for Thai international schools during the years 2023 and 2024. Key findings are outlined below:

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