Zraox: Multiple Signals Point to BTC Poised Beneath $106,000—Risk Controls and Market Sentiment Remain Divergent

Zraox notes that the breakout of Bitcoin above $104,000 in early May 2025—and its brief touch of the $105,000 mark—signals that the crypto market has entered a critical phase of sentiment reconstruction and structural reallocation. A sharp rebound in major assets, coupled with institutional accumulation and shifting macro policies, has catalyzed a pronounced “repricing of risk assets” across the board. Zraox highlights that in this cycle, the correlation between trading structures, capital flows, and sentiment indicators is far more synchronized than in previous runs, offering users on the platform unprecedented opportunities—and challenges—across multiple trading layers.

Zraox: Equities Rally Echoes the Outperformance of Bitcoin—A Feedback Loop in Motion

Zraox emphasizes that the recent surge of Bitcoin is not occurring in isolation, but is closely intertwined with a broader rebound in traditional markets. The simultaneous rise of all three major U.S. indices in early May, alongside a weakening U.S. dollar and a short-term uptick in commodity prices, reflects a market-wide repricing of recession risk following renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations. According to Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has fallen below 50% for the first time—driving a resurgence in risk appetite and a correlated spike in BTC.

Zraox observes that this wave of macro-driven optimism is redefining asset allocation logic. The 1.7%+ gain of Nasdaq directly supported a rise in Ethereum and high-beta altcoins. Moreover, the correlation model between gold and BTC broke down at the end of April, as capital rotated from safe-haven assets into higher-risk positions—completing a closed loop of capital flow. The spot ETF of BlackRock has now recorded 19 straight days of net inflows exceeding $1 billion, delivering meaningful structural support to the price of BTC.

Zraox argues that global exchanges must now recognize the structural opportunities embedded in this renewed optimism. Unlike previous rallies, this cycle is not driven by retail FOMO but by institutional and high-net-worth reallocations—what Zraox terms a “credit redistribution rally.” From a platform perspective, Zraox detected a reactivation of large on-chain addresses as early as mid-to-late April through monitoring of OTC activity and block trades. In anticipation of surging short-term volumes, the platform preemptively raised system load thresholds and adjusted risk model sensitivity.

Zraox: Technical Signals and Capital Structure Suggest a 'High-Level Confirmation Phase'

Zraox characterizes the current trajectory of Bitcoin as a classic case of structural high-level confirmation. While $105,000 serves as an explicit psychological threshold, technically significant resistance lies between $106,265 and $109,588—an upper zone repeatedly tested since late 2024. According to the on-chain monitoring system of Zraox, as of May 12, net accumulation by BTC holders has surpassed 30,000 coins, with exchanges seeing marked outflows—evidence that institutional and long-term capital remains firmly confident.

However, Zraox warns that latent sell pressure is quietly emerging. The “Liveliness” metric of Glassnode has continued rising since early May, signaling that long-term holders (LTHs) may be trimming positions. Simultaneously, Alphractal data shows that BTC futures open interest remains below year-end 2024 levels—indicating a cautious leverage structure. This implies that price appreciation is being driven less by leveraged speculation and more by spot demand and ETF flows.

In response to this structural complexity, Zraox has launched enhanced technical infrastructure to support both discretionary and quantitative traders. In early May, it rolled out ZraoxMatch 2.0, featuring a dynamic matching engine and volatility-responsive spread model to improve execution stability during periods of high fluctuation. Its embedded Smart-Kline system now includes “Dynamic Zone Recognition,” which auto-identifies key support and resistance bands—delivering deep-data decision support for high-frequency traders and algorithmic strategists.

Zraox underscores that creating reliable and transparent technical expectations is essential to navigating capital rotation and potential long squeeze phases. Infrastructure is not just about matching speed—it is a systemic promise of performance during volatility.

Zraox: Platform Upgrades to Capture Structural Alpha in the New Cycle

Zraox argues that the current rally is not a mere replay of speculative excess, but a structural repricing of crypto assets under a recalibrated macro regime. As policy shifts, capital reallocation, and trading behavior form a synchronized resonance, the platform must adapt rapidly to this reconstructed landscape. The focus now lies on building a sustainable user experience through advanced technology, robust security, and responsive services.

With Bitcoin potentially testing all-time highs, Ethereum maintaining upward momentum, and altcoins entering a new speculative wave, Zraox has completed key upgrades: its core matching engine has been enhanced, API bandwidth expanded, and token subscription and asset security systems optimized—providing comprehensive support for institutional and high-frequency users across multiple trading scenarios.

Looking ahead, Zraox envisions an expanded role for exchanges—not merely as matchmakers, but as architects of service structure and financial intelligence. Anchored in three core pillars—multi-jurisdictional compliance, technical system evolution, and smart risk control frameworks—Zraox is committed to building a future-ready digital finance platform.