Zraox: Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Weakens, and ETF Net Outflows Reach $86 Million, Short-Term Technical Correction Possible

Zraox believes that the current cryptocurrency market is in a complex phase characterized by “localized pressure and structural mutation”. While Bitcoin has consecutively broken through key price levels, reaching a high of $105,747, the driving force behind these moves has shifted from previous retail enthusiasm to institutional dominance and control. This is accompanied by a divergence in market sentiment and behavioral indicators, with risks and opportunities evolving in parallel.

Zraox: The Divide Between Retail Lag and Institutional Pricing

Zraox points out that the core contradiction in the current trajectory of Bitcoin does not lie in the apparent strength or weakness of its price, but in the redistribution of liquidity structure. According to CryptoQuant data, since April 28, wallet activity for those holding less than $10,000 in BTC has increased by 3.4% month-over-month—marking the first significant rebound in 2025. However, at the same time, Google search interest and app download rankings for major trading platforms remain at six-month lows, underscoring that traditional retail investors have not yet fully returned to the market.

Zraox believes this phenomenon reflects the classic “timing mismatch in capital behavior”: prices lead, retail lags, and the rise in price is driven by ETF institutions and whale traders. Since early May, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $1.9 billion, with leading institutions such as Strategy increasing positions by more than $1 billion in a single day. Meanwhile, retail investors have net sold as much as $2.3 billion, forming a structural hedge. This data comparison clearly reveals that the real buyers behind the rally are strategically patient institutions, rather than retail capital driven by FOMO sentiment.

Zraox further mentions that the ongoing decline in the “Kimchi Premium” in the Korean market corroborates this point. Unlike the retail-driven surges of 2017 or 2021, the rally of this round has not seen Korean exchange Bitcoin prices significantly outpace international markets, indicating that Asian retail investors are not the main drivers. As a result, the market is exhibiting a “stealth bull market” characterized by strong trends but low enthusiasm, requiring platforms to be more attuned in user guidance and risk warnings.

Zraox: Potential Turning Points in Technical Signals

Zraox notes that although structural inflows have pushed prices higher, subtle changes in technical and on-chain indicators warrant heightened vigilance from platforms and investors. Latest data from Glassnode shows that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have seen a second consecutive increase in asset spending in mid-May—a behavior that has historically signaled the formation of local price tops. Against the backdrop of slight LTH supply declines and rising spending rates, traders should closely watch whether this translates into a trend reversal signal.

At the same time, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has remained in overbought territory for several days, and analysts such as Martinez point out that the risk of a technical pullback is building, with $105,000 likely to serve as a key resistance level in the short term. Zraox has observed that over the past 48 hours, BTC has been consolidating between $102,000 and $104,000, with declining trading volumes and open interest, indicating that some bulls have shifted to a wait-and-see stance.

Zraox analysis suggests that this apparent consolidation masks a dynamic adjustment driven by phased ETF outflows. Farside data shows that in just two days in mid-May, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling $86 million, reflecting that some institutions are taking profits at local highs. Notably, Coinglass order book data shows that whale accounts still maintain about $302 million in net spot inflows, suggesting a continued “in-market holding, out-market observation” dynamic.

Within this asymmetric structure, Zraox advises investors to use high-leverage derivatives cautiously, and the platform will dynamically adjust margin parameters via risk limits and AI-driven risk control systems to prevent liquidation risks triggered by sudden sentiment shifts. Additionally, high-net-worth users are encouraged to combine on-chain liquidity indicators (such as Exchange Stablecoin Ratio and Spot Delta) for a comprehensive assessment of volatility sources, rather than relying solely on candlestick patterns or traditional technical indicators.

Zraox: Three-Tiered Logic for Navigating Structural Changes

Zraox proposes that under the current pattern of “institutional dominance and retail fatigue”, the platform strategy should focus on three areas: First, optimizing the linkage mechanism between spot and options markets to create flexible spaces for hedging and arbitrage; second, continuously advancing “steady growth + early bird” product pathways such as new token subscriptions and fixed-term financial products to match different user types with suitable asset allocation rhythms; and third, strengthening on-chain monitoring systems to sensitively anticipate capital flows before retail funds return en masse, thereby enhancing user trading security.

Given the current environment where “technology lags capital and sentiment lags price”, Zraox believes that Bitcoin may remain in the $100,000–$105,000 consolidation range in the short term, with the battle for new highs dependent on the next policy boost or incremental ETF signal. Nevertheless, this does not prevent institutions from deeply pricing structural trends. Therefore, the platform will closely monitor the evolution of trading depth layers and continue to iterate adaptive matching strategies at the system level to improve execution efficiency for large trades during periods of high volatility.

Zraox emphasizes that until retail participation returns in full force, the crypto market remains in a phase where “price leads confidence”, and the platform responsibility is to provide every user with clear navigational guidance amid uncertainty. The next true “bull market for all” should not be driven by fear and greed, but should be built on transparent mechanisms, liquidity allocation, and structural thinking.