Asset: Gold / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD)
Date: May 21, 2025

1. Executive Summary

Current analysis indicates that gold (XAU/USD) presents a viable intraday trading opportunity. The asset is currently trading around $3,307-$3,308, showing moderate volatility and positive momentum in the very short term after a period of consolidation. Technical indicators, including RSI readings across multiple timeframes, suggest a potential continuation of the upward movement within the day's trading session.

Trade Summary:

• Entry Price: $3,307.50-$3,309.00

• Take Profit Target: $3,320.00 (+0.37%)

• Stop Loss: $3,299.00 (-0.26%)

• Risk per Trade: 1% ($100)

• Position Size: 0.03 lots (3 mini lots)

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2. Market Analysis

2.1 Long-term Analysis (Weekly Chart)

From the weekly chart gold has demonstrated extraordinary strength over the past few years, rising from approximately $1,800 in 2021 to the current level of $3,300+ in 2025, representing an increase of over 83%. The overall trend remains strongly bullish, with recent price action showing accelerated momentum since 2023. The weekly RSI at 72.91 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting caution for long-term positions, but this does not necessarily preclude short-term bullish movements.

2.2 Medium-term Analysis (Daily Chart)

The daily chart shows gold has been in a strong uptrend since January 2025, reaching an all-time high of approximately $3,500 in April before experiencing a correction. Currently, the price is in what appears to be a consolidation phase after the recent pullback, trading around $3,307. The daily RSI at 53.27 indicates neutral momentum, having reset from overbought conditions, which creates room for potential upside.

2.3 Short-term Analysis (4-Hour Chart)

The 4-hour chart shows a recent strong upward move, with the price currently at $3,307.66 with an RSI of 55.48, indicating moderate bullish momentum without being overbought. Volume has been relatively consistent, with no abnormal spikes that would suggest exhaustion.

2.4 Intraday Analysis (1-Hour and 15-Minute Charts)

On the 1-hour timeframe gold is showing signs of range-bound trading between approximately $3,130 and $3,320 over the past month. Current price action has formed a series of higher lows since May 15, suggesting building bullish momentum. The RSI at 72.71 indicates near-overbought conditions in this timeframe, which warrants some caution but aligns with the potential for continued upward movement in the very short term.

The 15-minute chart shows the price stabilizing around $3,307.85 with an RSI of 60.07, suggesting balanced short-term momentum that could reasonably continue in either direction, though the broader trends on longer timeframes favor upward movement.

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3. Trading Strategy

3.1 Entry Parameters / Position

The optimal strategy for today is to enter a long position based on the following criteria:

• Wait for a minor pullback on the 15-minute chart

• Enter when the price retests the $3,307.50-$3,309.00 zone

• Confirm entry with RSI staying above 50 on the 15-minute timeframe

• Check that volume remains consistent or increasing

• Ensure no significant economic announcements are scheduled during the trade duration

3.2 Exit Parameters / Position

The position will be closed under the following conditions:

• Primary Take Profit: When price reaches $3,320.00 (approximately +0.37%)

• Trailing Stop: Once price moves 0.2% in favor (approximately $3,314), move stop loss to break-even

• Time-Based Exit: Close the position by the end of the trading day regardless of profit/loss, to avoid overnight exposure

3.3 Ideal Entry Point

The ideal entry point is during the New York trading session (for improved liquidity), specifically if the price pulls back to $3,307.50 and shows signs of bouncing with supportive RSI movement (above 50) on the 15-minute chart.

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4. Risk Management

4.1 Stop Loss Parameters / Position

The initial stop loss will be placed at $3,299.00, which is:

• Below the recent swing low visible on the 1-hour chart

• Represents a risk of approximately -0.26% from the entry point

• Provides sufficient buffer for normal market noise while still protecting capital

4.2 Risk Mitigation

To further protect against adverse moves:

• Maximum loss per trade is strictly limited to 1% of account value ($100)

• No trade adjustments that increase risk beyond the initial 1% will be permitted

• Position will be split into two parts if total planned size exceeds 0.05 lots

• Trading will be avoided during major economic announcements related to the USD, interest rates, or gold

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5. Position Sizing Calculation

With an account balance of $10,000 and maximum risk of 1% per trade ($100):

• Risk per trade: $100

• Price difference between entry and stop loss: $8.50 ($3,307.50 - $3,299.00)

• Value per pip/point for 1 standard lot of XAU/USD: Approximately $10 per $0.01 move

• Value of stop loss for 1 standard lot: $850

• Maximum allowable position size: $100 ÷ $850 = 0.1176 lots

• Adjusted position size for safe execution: 0.03 lots (3 mini lots)

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6. Trade Management Plan

1. Entry Phase:

   • Place limit order at $3,307.50 with stop loss at $3,299.00 and take profit at $3,320.00

   • If limit order isn't triggered within 2 hours, reassess market conditions

   • If market moves directly upward without pullback, consider a smaller position at market price if RSI remains under 70

2. Active Management:

   • Once the trade is 0.2% in profit, move stop loss to break-even

   • Consider closing half the position at 50% of target profit ($3,313.75)

   • Monitor RSI for potential divergence that could signal weakness

3. Exit Strategy:

   • Take full profits at target of $3,320.00

   • Exit immediately if fundamental news causes unexpected volatility

   • Close position by end of trading day regardless of profit/loss

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7. Execution Checklist

7.1 Pre-Trade

• Confirm current market price and conditions match analysis

• Check economic calendar for potential market-moving events

• Verify account margin and available balance

• Calculate exact position size and risk parameters

• Prepare order templates in MetaTrader 5 platform

7.2 During-Trade

• Monitor position without excessive checking (maximum once per 15 minutes)

• Track RSI for significant changes in momentum

• Adjust trailing stop as per plan when partial profit threshold is reached

• Note any important price action or market behavior for post-trade analysis

7.3 Post-Trade

• Record trade details: entry, exit, profit/loss, reason for exit

• Compare actual execution to planned strategy

• Note lessons learned and potential improvements

• Update trading journal with screenshots of key moments in the trade

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8. Conclusion

Gold currently presents a favorable day trading opportunity with a positive risk-reward ratio of 1:1.43. The asset shows bullish momentum on multiple timeframes with the 1-hour and 15-minute charts indicating potential for continued upward movement in the short term. While the weekly timeframe suggests caution due to overbought conditions, the daily chart shows that gold has recently reset from overbought levels, providing room for further upside.

This strategy aims to capture a modest portion of intraday movement while strictly adhering to risk management protocols. With a maximum risk of 1% ($100) on a $10,000 account, the position size has been calculated to ensure capital preservation remains the priority while seeking to benefit from the identified trading opportunity.

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XAUUSD 1m Time Frame, May 21, 2025

XAUUSD 5m Time Frame, May 21, 2025

XAUUSD 15m Time Frame, May 21, 2025

XAUUSD 1h Time Frame, May 21, 2025

XAUUSD 4h Time Frame, May 21, 2025

XAUUSD Daily Time Frame, May 21, 2025

XAUUSD Weekly Time Frame, May 21, 2025

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Financial Disclaimer

The content presented in this blog series represents solely my personal opinions and market analysis based on my individual research and experience in cryptocurrency trading. All information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice.

Readers who choose to act upon any information contained within this blog do so entirely at their own risk and must exercise their own independent judgment. I expressly disclaim all liability for any direct, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages that may arise from any reader's use of, or reliance upon, the information presented in this blog. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and cryptocurrency markets involve substantial risk of loss. I strongly recommend consulting with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.