Asset: Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar (BTCUSD)
Date: May 22, 2025

1. Executive Summary

Based on comprehensive technical analysis across multiple timeframes, Bitcoin presents a favorable day trading opportunity on May 22, 2025. The asset is currently trading at $109,784.85 and demonstrates strong bullish momentum following a successful breakout above the $109,000 resistance level. The technical indicators across all timeframes align to support a long position entry strategy.

The recommended trading approach focuses on capitalizing on the current upward momentum while maintaining strict risk management protocols. The RSI readings across timeframes indicate the asset is approaching overbought conditions but has not reached extreme levels, suggesting potential for continued upward movement within the trading session.

Recommended Day Trade:

• Entry Point: $109,800

• Take Profit (Exit): $110,800

• Stop Loss: $109,600

• Position Size: 0.5 BTC (approximately)

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2. Market Analysis

2.1 Long-term Analysis

The weekly chart reveals Bitcoin's remarkable recovery from the 2022 bear market lows around $15,000. The asset has established a strong uptrend over the past two years, with the current price representing a new all-time high territory above $109,000. The long-term RSI reading of 67.95 indicates healthy momentum without extreme overbought conditions. The weekly timeframe shows consistent higher highs and higher lows, confirming the primary trend direction remains bullish.

The volume profile demonstrates sustained institutional and retail interest, with significant accumulation periods during consolidation phases. The long-term moving averages are properly aligned in bullish configuration, supporting the continuation of the primary uptrend.

2.2 Medium-term Analysis

The daily chart shows Bitcoin has successfully broken above multiple resistance levels, including the psychological $100,000 barrier and subsequent resistance at $105,000 and $108,000. The current trading level near $110,000 represents a continuation of the established uptrend pattern.

The daily RSI at 76.18 indicates strong momentum, though approaching overbought territory. However, in strong trending markets, assets can remain overbought for extended periods. The daily moving averages maintain bullish alignment, with price trading well above all major exponential moving averages.

Recent price action shows a consolidation pattern between $106,000 and $109,000 before the current breakout, indicating accumulation before the next leg higher. Volume patterns support the breakout with increased activity during upward movements.

2.3 Short-term Analysis

The 4-hour timeframe reveals the immediate breakout above $109,000 with strong momentum. The RSI reading of 71.14 shows robust buying pressure while maintaining room for further advancement. The recent price action demonstrates a series of higher lows, indicating sustained buying interest on any pullbacks.

The 4-hour chart shows a clear ascending triangle pattern that resolved to the upside, providing the technical catalyst for the current move. Support levels are now established at $109,000 (previous resistance turned support) and $108,500 (recent swing low).

2.4 Intraday Analysis

The 1-hour and 5-minute charts show strong bullish momentum with minimal pullbacks. The RSI readings of 54.07 and 68.10 respectively indicate healthy momentum without extreme readings. The intraday price action demonstrates consistent buying pressure with each minor pullback being met with renewed buying interest.

The current session shows price consolidating near session highs around $109,800, suggesting preparation for the next upward move. Volume patterns indicate institutional participation with larger block trades supporting the upward movement.

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3. Trading Strategy

3.1 Entry Parameters / Position

The optimal entry strategy focuses on joining the established upward momentum at current market levels. Given the strong technical alignment across all timeframes and the fresh breakout above key resistance, a market entry at current levels presents the best risk-adjusted opportunity.

Entry should be executed when price demonstrates continued strength above $109,800, with confirmation from volume expansion and continued RSI momentum. The entry approach prioritizes speed of execution over attempting to time minor pullbacks, as the momentum characteristics suggest limited retracement opportunities.

3.2 Exit Parameters / Position

The primary profit target is established at $110,800, representing a 1,000-point gain from the entry level. This target aligns with the next significant resistance level based on previous price action and represents a realistic objective given the current momentum profile.

A secondary exit strategy involves scaling out 50% of the position at $110,400 (600-point gain) to secure profits while allowing the remainder to capture the full move to the primary target. This approach balances profit realization with trend continuation potential.

The final exit parameter involves closing any remaining position at market close if the primary target has not been achieved, adhering to the day trading mandate.

3.3 Ideal Entry Point

The ideal entry point occurs at $109,800, representing the current market price with confirmation of continued upward momentum. This entry level provides optimal positioning for the anticipated move toward $110,800 while maintaining appropriate risk parameters.

The entry should be executed with a market order to ensure immediate position establishment, given the momentum characteristics and potential for rapid price advancement. Attempting to secure a marginally better entry price risks missing the move entirely in fast-moving market conditions.

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4. Risk Management

4.1 Stop Loss Parameters / Position

The protective stop loss is positioned at $109,600, representing a 200-point loss from the entry level. This stop placement provides protection against adverse movement while allowing for normal market volatility within the uptrend.

The stop loss level is positioned below the immediate support level at $109,700, ensuring that a breach of this level would indicate a change in the short-term momentum profile. The stop should be implemented as a hard stop to ensure automatic execution without emotional interference.

4.2 Risk Mitigation

Risk mitigation strategies include position sizing limitations to the prescribed 1% of account balance, ensuring that even a full stop loss execution results in manageable account impact. Additionally, the strategy employs time-based risk management by maintaining the day trading approach, avoiding overnight exposure to gap risk.

Market condition monitoring throughout the trading session provides additional risk mitigation, with provisions for early exit if technical conditions deteriorate or if broader market factors emerge that could impact Bitcoin's price action.

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5. Position Sizing Calculation

Based on the $10,000 account balance and 1% risk tolerance:

Maximum Risk Amount: $100 USD (1% of $10,000) Entry Price: $109,800 Stop Loss Price: $109,600 Risk Per Unit: $200 (Entry - Stop Loss) Position Size: 0.5 BTC ($100 ÷ $200 = 0.5 BTC) Notional Value: $54,900 (0.5 BTC × $109,800)

The position size of 0.5 BTC ensures that the maximum loss remains within the 1% risk parameter while providing sufficient exposure to capture meaningful profits from the anticipated price movement.

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6. Trade Management Plan

Active trade management begins immediately upon position entry with continuous monitoring of price action, volume patterns, and technical indicator behavior. The management approach emphasizes protecting profits as they develop while allowing the trend to continue.

When price reaches the first profit level at $110,400, 50% of the position should be closed to secure profits. The stop loss on the remaining position should be moved to breakeven at $109,800 to eliminate risk while maintaining upside exposure.

Continuous assessment of momentum indicators, particularly RSI behavior near overbought levels, provides guidance for final exit timing. If RSI reaches extreme levels above 80 on shorter timeframes, consideration should be given to accelerating the exit process.

Position monitoring includes assessment of broader cryptocurrency market conditions and any relevant news or events that could impact Bitcoin's price action during the trading session.

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7. Execution Checklist

7.1 Pre-Trade Preparation

Confirm MetaTrader5 platform connectivity and account balance verification. Review current market conditions and confirm technical analysis validity. Verify position sizing calculations and ensure stop loss and profit target levels are predetermined and clearly defined.

Check for any scheduled economic announcements or cryptocurrency-specific news that could impact trading conditions. Ensure adequate time availability for active trade monitoring throughout the anticipated position duration.

7.2 During-Trade Monitoring

Maintain continuous price monitoring with particular attention to volume confirmation of price movements. Monitor RSI levels across multiple timeframes for momentum divergence signals. Track progress toward profit targets and be prepared to implement partial profit-taking strategies.

Assess broader market conditions for any changes that could impact the trade thesis. Remain prepared to adjust stop loss levels as price advances favorably. Monitor for any technical breakdown signals that would warrant early exit.

7.3 Post-Trade Analysis

Document trade execution details including actual entry and exit prices, timing, and profit/loss results. Analyze the effectiveness of the technical analysis and identify any improvements for future similar setups.

Review trade management decisions and assess whether profit targets and stop loss levels were appropriately positioned. Update trading journal with lessons learned and any market observations that could benefit future trading decisions.

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Conclusion

The technical analysis across all relevant timeframes supports a bullish day trading opportunity for Bitcoin on May 22, 2025. The combination of strong momentum indicators, successful resistance level breakouts, and favorable risk-reward parameters creates an attractive trading setup.

The recommended long position at $109,800 with a profit target of $110,800 and stop loss at $109,600 provides a well-structured trade with clear parameters and appropriate risk management. The 1:5 risk-reward ratio offers compelling compensation for the assumed risk.

Success in this trade depends on disciplined execution of the predetermined parameters and active monitoring throughout the trading session. The technical environment suggests favorable probability for achieving the profit target, though strict adherence to the stop loss level remains essential for long-term trading success.

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BTCUSD 1m Time Frame, May 22, 2025

BTCUSD 5m Time Frame, May 22, 2025

BTCUSD 15m Time Frame, May 22, 2025

BTCUSD 1h Time Frame, May 22, 2025

BTCUSD 4h Time Frame, May 22, 2025

BTCUSD Daily Time Frame, May 22, 2025

BTCUSD Weekly Time Frame, May 22, 2025

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Financial Disclaimer

The content presented in this blog series represents solely my personal opinions and market analysis based on my individual research and experience in cryptocurrency trading. All information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice.

Readers who choose to act upon any information contained within this blog do so entirely at their own risk and must exercise their own independent judgment. I expressly disclaim all liability for any direct, indirect, consequential, or incidental damages that may arise from any reader's use of, or reliance upon, the information presented in this blog. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and cryptocurrency markets involve substantial risk of loss. I strongly recommend consulting with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.