Skip This Asset - Traders should avoid ASIA AVIATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD during this period due to several critical factors. The stock exhibits a clear and sustained downtrend across all timeframes, with the price declining from approximately 3.00 THB to 1.16 THB over the past seven months. The RSI indicators show oversold conditions without meaningful recovery, suggesting continued selling pressure. Most concerning for long-term growth investors is the absence of dividend payments and the company's position in the highly volatile aviation sector, which faces ongoing challenges including fuel cost pressures, regulatory changes, and economic sensitivity. The current technical setup indicates further downside potential rather than a value opportunity, making this unsuitable for growth-focused dividend strategies.

Asset: ASIA AVIATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD (AAV)
Exchange: SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand)
Report Date: May 24, 2025

1. Executive Summary

ASIA AVIATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD operates in the aviation industry as a low-cost airline holding company in Thailand's transportation sector. The company's stock has experienced significant deterioration across all analyzed timeframes, declining approximately 61% from recent highs of 3.00 THB to the current level of 1.16 THB.

Current market conditions present unfavorable risk-reward dynamics for long-term growth and dividend-focused strategies. The sustained downtrend, absence of dividend yield, and sector-specific headwinds make this asset unsuitable for conservative growth portfolios at this time.

Recommendation: AVOID - Do not initiate positions until technical and fundamental conditions improve significantly.

2. Market Analysis

2.1 Long-term Analysis

The monthly chart reveals a dramatic decline from the 2021 peak of approximately 7.50 THB to current levels, representing an 85% correction. The weekly timeframe shows consistent lower highs and lower lows formation since early 2024, with no signs of trend reversal. The RSI on longer timeframes indicates deeply oversold conditions that have persisted without meaningful relief rallies.

2.2 Medium-term Analysis

The daily chart demonstrates a clear descending channel pattern with the stock breaking below multiple support levels. The 200-day moving average acts as strong resistance, while volume patterns suggest institutional selling pressure. Recent attempts at recovery have been met with increased selling, indicating supply overhang in the market.

2.3 Short-term Analysis

Short-term momentum remains bearish with the RSI hovering near oversold territory. Intraday rallies have been shallow and short-lived, suggesting limited buying interest. The current consolidation around 1.16 THB appears fragile with downside risk toward 1.00 THB psychological support.

3. Trading Strategy

3.1 Entry Parameters/Position

Current Recommendation: NO ENTRY

Given the prevailing downtrend and sector challenges, no entry positions are recommended. For future consideration, entry conditions would require:

Clear trend reversal confirmation above 1.80 THB
RSI divergence patterns on weekly charts
Sustained volume increase on recovery attempts
Fundamental improvement in aviation sector metrics

3.2 Exit Parameters/Position

Not Applicable - No positions recommended for initiation.

For existing holders:

Consider defensive exits near any rally toward 1.40-1.50 THB resistance zone
Implement systematic reduction strategies to minimize further losses

3.3 Ideal Entry Point

No ideal entry point identified under current market conditions. Future entry consideration would require price stabilization above 2.00 THB with confirmed fundamental improvements.

4. Risk Management

4.1 Stop Loss Parameters/Position

Not Applicable - No entry positions recommended.

For educational purposes, any hypothetical position would require:

Maximum 15% stop loss from entry point
Position sizing not exceeding 2% of total portfolio value
Sector allocation limits due to aviation industry volatility

4.2 Risk Mitigation

The primary risk mitigation strategy is position avoidance. The aviation sector faces multiple headwinds including fuel cost inflation, regulatory pressures, and economic sensitivity that make defensive positioning preferable.

5. Trade Management Plan

Current Status: MONITORING PHASE

The asset requires continuous monitoring for potential trend reversal signals. Key monitoring criteria include:

Weekly RSI divergence patterns
Volume expansion on any recovery attempts
Sector-wide performance relative to broader market indices
Company-specific news regarding route expansion or cost reduction initiatives

6. Execution Checklist

6.1 Pre-Trade

Confirm downtrend across all timeframes
Assess sector headwinds and company fundamentals
Evaluate alternative opportunities in more favorable sectors
Monitor for any catalyst events that could alter the technical setup

6.2 During-Trade

Not Applicable - No active positions recommended

6.3 Post-Trade

Continue monitoring for trend reversal signals
Reassess quarterly when new fundamental data becomes available
Track sector performance relative to broader market recovery

7. Conclusion

ASIA AVIATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD presents significant challenges for long-term growth and dividend-focused investment strategies. The sustained technical deterioration, absence of dividend yield, and sector-specific headwinds create an unfavorable risk-reward profile.

The recommendation is to avoid this asset until clear signs of trend reversal emerge, supported by fundamental improvements in the aviation sector. Alternative opportunities in more stable sectors with established dividend histories would better serve long-term growth and income objectives.

Investors should monitor the stock for potential future opportunities but should not consider entry under current market conditions. The focus should remain on capital preservation and seeking opportunities in sectors with more favorable long-term growth prospects.

AAV 4h Time Frame, May 24, 2025

AAV Daily Time Frame, May 24, 2025

AAV Weekly Time Frame, May 24, 2025

AAV Monthly Time Frame, May 24, 2025

Financial Disclaimer

All information contained in this report represents personal opinions and analysis based on publicly available market data. This report is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities.

Readers assume all risks when using this information for investment decisions. The author accepts no responsibility for any losses, damages, or adverse consequences that may result from the use of this information. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and all investments carry inherent risks including the potential loss of principal.

Readers are strongly advised to conduct their own due diligence, consult with qualified financial advisors, and consider their individual risk tolerance and investment objectives before making any investment decisions. The aviation sector carries additional risks including regulatory changes, fuel price volatility, and economic sensitivity that should be carefully evaluated.

This analysis is based on technical chart patterns and publicly available information as of May 24, 2025, and may not reflect subsequent market developments or company-specific events that could materially affect the investment thesis presented herein.

ASIA AVIATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD (AAV) Trading Strategy Report May 2025 (Q2, 2025)

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