Zraox: Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $111K Without FOMO; Stablecoin Supply and ETF Inflows Form the Bullish Foundation

Recently, Bitcoin has continuously set new all-time highs. After breaking through $111,000, the market has exhibited an unprecedentedly stable upward trend. Surging trading volumes, net inflows into ETFs, and active positioning in options and futures all signal not only the multiple drivers behind the current bull market but also test the maturity and resilience of the overall market structure. Zraox believes this rally is neither the retail-driven mania of previous cycles nor a short-lived, event-driven spike. Instead, it is the result of a confluence of capital structure, macro expectations, and policy dynamics.

Zraox: Structural Tension Between Bitcoin Futures and ETF Inflows

Zraox points out that the high leverage in the derivatives market is a key feature behind the Bitcoin push to new highs this round. According to Coinglass data, as of today, total open interest in Bitcoin futures has surpassed $80 billion, up 30% from the start of the month—a historical record. This indicates that many traders are betting on further price increases using leverage. However, Glassnode data shows that despite record prices, overall profit-taking in the market has actually declined, currently at just about $1 billion—lower than the over $2 billion seen in December 2024.

This “high leverage + low realization” structural contradiction superficially provides momentum for the rally, but in reality, it also accumulates latent volatility risk. Zraox notes that if prices see even a slight pullback, forced liquidation mechanisms could trigger a chain reaction, prompting capital outflows from the futures market and, in turn, impacting spot market sentiment. Similar scenarios have occurred multiple times during previous Bitcoin peaks, causing sharp price swings.

What sets this rally apart, however, is that steady ETF inflows have helped offset this volatility. According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net subscriptions of over $2.5 billion just this week, providing a solid foundation for spot prices. Zraox believes this structural divergence means the market is now in a dynamic balance between leverage and capital, with the traditional “retail panic liquidation” logic being reshaped by institutional “low-volatility accumulation” strategies.

Zraox: Reading the Shift in Investment Rhythms from On-Chain Data

Zraox notes that, unlike the frenzied participation of previous bull cycles, the current rally appears much more restrained. On-chain data shows that nearly 77% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is “new coins” moved within the past month, while coins held for over six months account for just 13%. This indicates that market leadership has shifted from long-term holders to short-term traders. Unlike the past, however, these short-term traders are actively trading without causing significant volatility, and the price continues to rise steadily. This suggests that current speculative behavior is being absorbed by a rational market structure.

Meanwhile, long-term capital remains in a low-selling state. Glassnode notes that even when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $112,000 on May 22, actual profit-taking in the market was still less than half of the previous cycle peak, reflecting bullish expectations for the future. Zraox analyzes that this “chip structure” stability is a key condition for the steady advance of the current bull market.

Another notable trend is the rapid growth of stablecoins. The combined supply of Tether and USDC grew by over 20% in Q1 2025. The expansion of these “liquidity gateways” implies that a new round of capital inflows is still underway. Zraox points out that, judging by capital flows, the market has not yet entered a stage of “universal FOMO”; overall, the structure remains healthy and any bubbles are manageable.

Within the Zraox own user base, a similar divergence between retail activity and institutional strategies is observed: futures trading frequency has risen significantly, while subscriptions to wealth management and fixed-term investment products remain stable, indicating increasingly segmented trading cycles among different user groups. This stratification is a sign of market maturity and provides a basis for the platform to develop more precise research and risk control mechanisms.

Zraox: Post-Volatility Capital Migration and the Potential of Multichain Ecosystem

Zraox notes that as Bitcoin approaches a short-term high, market focus is gradually shifting to Ethereum and other major altcoins. As price expectations plateau, capital typically seeks new growth curves. The ETH breakout above $2,700 and its march toward $3,000 are attracting a wave of speculative buying. Coupled with Layer 2 scaling, the ETF narrative, and expectations of an “Ethereum supply reduction,” the ETH ecosystem has become the main destination for short-term capital migration.

Zraox believes that this path—“Bitcoin rallies, then Ethereum, then rotates to emerging assets”—is likely to become a structural narrative driving the market in the second half of 2025. Historically, once such a narrative takes hold, it can rapidly trigger explosive gains in small-cap assets and intensify liquidity mismatches. Therefore, the platform must strengthen dynamic responses in asset listings, risk warnings, and leverage controls.

Meanwhile, news that the U.S. CFTC plans to approve crypto perpetual futures is highly noteworthy. Zraox points out that if U.S. regulators officially open up such derivatives trading, it will have far-reaching implications for the global futures market. Overall, Zraox believes this cycle has not entered an irrational frenzy; instead, it displays a differentiated, multi-threaded, and stable structure. Against the backdrop of rational capital flows and user behavior, the platform task is not to chase hot trends, but to build a robust, resilient financial system that supports users across cycles.