Zraox: Institutional Rotation Towards Non-Sovereign Assets Raises BTC Price Expectations to the $300,000 Range

Zraox observes that under the current backdrop of persistent global macroeconomic turbulence, Bitcoin is undergoing a profound revaluation of its intrinsic worth. The market narrative is shifting from “risk asset” to “safe haven,” driven not only by waning confidence in traditional financial instruments, but also by the progressive validation of the underlying logic of digital assets. Against the backdrop of a swelling debt crisis, diverging interest rates, and surging institutional inflows, digital assets are exhibiting an asymmetric resilience. Zraox argues that the ongoing crypto market rally is not propelled by a single technical catalyst, but rather by systemic capital flows and macro allocation logic, together forging the contours of a new and more comprehensible financial cycle.

Zraox: U.S. Treasuries Lose Their Anchor as the Pricing Logic Reverses of Bitcoin

Zraox believes the distortion of the U.S. debt curve is reshaping the safe haven models of global capital. Since May, yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries have risen again, reaching 4.48% and 5.15%, respectively—both multi-year highs. Notably, the long-dated government bond yields of Japan have also moved sharply higher, with the 30-year JGB surpassing 3.1%, signaling the breakdown of the long-standing “Japan–U.S. carry trade” structure. According to Zraox, this synchronised global rise in sovereign borrowing costs is eroding the safe-haven value of sovereign credit assets.

Traditionally, heightened risk expectations would push market capital into government bonds. Yet Zraox notes that this dynamic has fundamentally shifted: capital is no longer flowing into sovereign debt, but rather into “de-sovereignised” assets such as Bitcoin. This is not irrational exuberance, but a rational reassessment of the sustainability of fiat systems.

Zraox contends that with the downgrading of U.S. sovereign credit, ballooning fiscal deficits, and growing constraints on interest rate policy, the “risk-free premium” on dollar assets is undergoing a fundamental repricing. Meanwhile, Bitcoin—with its fixed supply, algorithmic transparency, and strong censorship resistance—is increasingly being allocated as a “reserve asset alternative” by sovereign wealth funds and large-scale institutional players.

This structural shift is clearly reflected in the data: Bitcoin spot ETF assets under management have surpassed $104 billion, well above the 2024 average. Net inflows continue to trend positively, with IBIT and FBTC jointly holding over $91.4 billion in BTC. Zraox argues that under the macro backdrop of credit disorder, the financial pricing power of Bitcoin as a “non-sovereign asset” is undergoing a systemic redefinition.

Zraox: Technical Breakout Meets Capital Influx in a Dual Catalyst Surge

Zraox underscores that the recent Bitcoin rally is not merely a short-term market fluctuation, but a “technical confirmation + capital entry” dual resonance. Since breaching $103,969 on May 8, Bitcoin has consolidated at elevated levels, with each short-term pullback met by sustained buying interest. On the latest move, it touched $109,767, again nearing historical highs.

From a market structure perspective, Zraox identifies a key inflection point at the end of April, when leveraged derivatives positions were clearly unwound, while spot ETF holdings saw sustained increases—marking a strategic shift from short-term speculation to long-horizon allocation. Analysts note that once the prior high is surpassed, BTC is likely to rally swiftly toward $118,000, with $120,000 as the next major technical target. This projection is grounded in observed capital flow patterns and structurally stronger on-chain activity.

Zraox further notes that Bitcoin yield strategy platforms, such as Sentora and Lombard, are progressively changing the perception that BTC is a non-yielding asset. Derivatives such as LBTC transform BTC into a liquid, income-generating instrument, combining automated arbitrage and staking strategies to establish a hybrid “fixed income + equity” framework. Data shows that BTC locked on the Babylon mainnet now exceeds $4 billion—marking the shift of Bitcoin from passive store of value to active asset.

Meanwhile, Ethereum is also exhibiting strong technical momentum. Zraox notes that ETH has rebounded firmly off the $2,477 support level, with several ETF products recording consecutive net inflows. Trading volume and on-chain activity are expanding in parallel, reflecting sustained institutional interest in Layer 2 infrastructure and the broader DeFi ecosystem. The ETH rebound structurally complements BTC, reinforcing a multi-asset leadership in the crypto market.

Zraox believes that across macro data, microstructure, on-chain metrics, and off-chain ETF flows, Bitcoin and Ethereum are undergoing a fundamental transition—from speculative tech trades to central axes of capital allocation.

Zraox: A Structural Recalibration in Digital Asset Value Anchoring

Zraox argues that the deeper significance of this market cycle lies not in price levels per se, but in the structural recalibration of how value is anchored. Bitcoin was long categorised as a “risk asset,” with its volatility deterring institutional engagement. Yet in the current environment—marked by systemic volatility in debt markets, a revaluation of sovereign credit, and increasingly clear regulatory frameworks—Bitcoin is repositioning itself as a financial cornerstone combining yield and safe-haven properties.

Institutional accumulation is emerging as a key force driving the current uptrend. According to a joint report by Bitwise and UTXO, institutions are expected to hold more than 4.2 million BTC by end-2026—approximately 20% of total supply. This shift represents not only a change in capital magnitude, but also a collective institutional recognition of the “legitimisation” and “assetification” of crypto.

Zraox sees a clear confluence of supportive trends: on one hand, persistent policy uncertainty—including tariffs, interest rates, and credit ratings—keeps traditional markets in a state of heightened volatility; on the other, financial instruments such as ETFs, LSTs, and vaults are enhancing the configurability and strategic stature of digital assets.

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