Prime Day 2025 Forecast: A Four-Day Shopping Blitz Equivalent to Two Black Fridays

Prime Day 2025 — Bigger Than Ever

For the first time, Prime Day will span four days—from July 8 to 11, with Adobe forecasting a monumental $23.8 billion in online U.S. spending

That’s a 28.4% increase from 2024—and notably equivalent to two Black Fridays ($10.8B in 2024)

This isn't just a sale—it's a summer shopping holiday, extended and amplified.

Why Prime Day Is Rivalling Black Friday

Here’s what makes this year’s Prime Day stand out:

1. Extended Duration
   Prime Day’s jump to four days gives shoppers more time—and creates sustained marketing momentum

2. Deeper Discounts
   Adobe anticipates 10–24% off most categories, with apparel seeing the deepest cuts (24%)

3. Mobile-First Performance
   Over half of Prime Day purchases are expected to come from mobile devices—driving $12.5B in app-based sales

4. Rise of BNPL & Back-to-School Preps
   Buy Now Pay Later options are projected to account for around 8% of total spend, and consumers are already shopping for backpacks, supplies, and electronics.

5. Generative AI’s Influence
   Adobe predicts a staggering 3,200% YoY increase in AI-assisted shopping discovery

What This Means for Shops & Retailers

• Retailers Beyond Amazon Are Joining In
  Walmart, Target, and others are launching concurrent sales to ride the Prime Day wave

• Experience Trumps Discounts
  Per Adobe analyst insights, brands must deliver seamless experiences—not just price cuts

The Mobile App Advantage

Prime Day’s mobile dominance underlines why brand apps are essential:

• Push Notifications & Flash Offers
  Push alerts can tap into real-time deals and timed drops.

• Optimized In-App Checkout
  Streamlined payment (Apple Pay, saved cards) enhances conversions during high-volume shopping.

• AI-Powered Search & Recommendations
  Give users personalized deals and relevant product suggestions during this peak spending period.

Quick Takeaways for Brands

• Plan Four Days of Campaigns: Ensure marketing and inventory align across the full Prime Day span.

• Invest in Mobile Optimization: Charge up your app speed, checkout paths, and push campaigns.

• Leverage AI & Analytics: Use real-time data to adjust pricing and promote high-performing SKUs.

• Partner with Marketplaces: Benefit from cross-channel visibility as consumers shop multiple platforms.

Final Word

Adobe’s forecast confirms that Prime Day 2025 is no summer slowdown—it’s a shopping tidal wave, comparable to two Black Fridays

Retailers and brands that strategize around mobile acceleration, app-first convenience, and AI-enhanced personalization will ride the wave—not get swept away.