Sensex, Nifty May Open Higher Despite Global Sell-Off: Key Levels to Watch on August 4

Indian stock markets may begin the week on a cautious but positive note, as investors scout for value in beaten-down equities. Despite weak global cues, early indicators suggest the potential for modest gains in domestic indices.

As of 7:30 a.m., the GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 24,671, up 0.3% or 70 points, pointing to a slightly optimistic start for benchmark indices.

Global Pressure Remains High, But Domestic Focus Shifts to Bargain Buys

Asian markets continued to trade in the red on Monday, following heavy losses on Wall Street. Global investor sentiment took a hit due to rising U.S. inflation concerns, a weak jobs report, and the announcement of steep tariff hikes by the U.S. administration. These developments led to a broad-based sell-off in equities worldwide.

Back home, Indian benchmarks closed lower in the previous session, mirroring the global trend. However, FMCG stocks bucked the decline due to their strong fundamentals, stable demand, and relatively lower exposure to external trade shocks.

Key Technical Levels for Nifty

Market experts caution that unless the Nifty convincingly reclaims key resistance levels, any intraday rallies may be short-lived and vulnerable to selling pressure. A decisive breakdown below the 24,535–24,500 range could trigger a further decline towards 24,300–24,250.

Momentum indicators also suggest weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the 40 mark, signaling a bearish bias. Unless supported by strong buying from institutional investors, especially Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), recovery may remain limited.

Expert View: SAMCO Securities

Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities noted,

“Nifty remains under clear bearish control, with weakening buyer participation and shifting resistance zones. Put writers are retreating to lower levels while call writers are establishing positions at the top, indicating deteriorating market sentiment.”

He added that unless there's a substantial short-covering move from FPIs, upside potential will remain capped.

Volatility in Check Despite Declines

The India VIX, a gauge for market volatility, rose 3.75% to 11.97. While there were two sharp declines last week, volatility is still trading below the 13-mark. Analysts interpret this as a sign that panic selling is absent and the market may stay range-bound rather than see a steep correction.

Market Outlook

With most negative catalysts now seemingly priced in, Dalal Street appears poised for a directional breakout in the coming sessions. While global concerns persist, domestic investors may continue to focus on stock-specific action and sectors with defensive potential.