The Heat Beneath Our Feet: Could Rising Temperatures Be Triggering Earthquakes?

In recent years, the global conversation around climate change has largely centered on surface-level consequences: melting ice caps, rising sea levels, extreme storms, wildfires, and droughts. But beneath all of this, quite literally, may be another, less explored but equally disturbing possibility—the potential for increased seismic activity in a warming world. As Earth’s surface temperatures soar, particularly in regions experiencing prolonged and extreme heatwaves, subtle but meaningful changes may be occurring within the Earth's crust. This raises a compelling, if not urgent, question: could climate change be loosening the very ground beneath us?

Traditionally, earthquakes have been attributed to tectonic activity—shifting plates, fault lines, subduction zones, and geological stress accumulation and release. These processes are well understood and remain the primary drivers of seismic events. However, new research and increasingly erratic global seismic patterns are prompting scientists to consider whether additional factors, including climate-induced surface changes, might be acting as accelerants or triggers in regions already under tectonic stress. In August 2025 alone, two significant earthquakes occurred just days apart, adding to a pattern that’s been repeating with curious frequency. Many might be quick to chalk this up to coincidence or mere tectonic timing, but what if it’s more than that?

One of the key areas of speculation, supported by emerging science, involves the role of temperature in altering the stability of the ground. High heat has been observed to cause expansion in surface materials—concrete, soil, and rock alike. In cities, roads buckle, train tracks warp, and sidewalks crack under prolonged heatwaves. This same phenomenon can also apply to bedrock and sub-surface layers, albeit on different timescales and under different pressures. When surface materials expand and contract unevenly, especially in areas with pre-existing faults or stressed geological structures, they may contribute additional microstrain. Over time, these subtle shifts could weaken geological cohesion in localized zones, pushing fault systems closer to a tipping point.

Adding to the equation is the role of humidity and water saturation. During extreme weather events—particularly in regions oscillating between intense drought and sudden flooding—soil and rock strata undergo rapid moisture fluctuations. This affects soil compaction, ground density, and the load-bearing characteristics of the upper crust. Such moisture-driven changes have already been shown to cause landslides, sinkholes, and minor subsidence. Could it not then also act as a trigger—however slight—in seismic systems already on edge?

Recent studies suggest this possibility may not be purely hypothetical. A 2022 paper published in the Arabian Journal of Geosciences titled "Investigating the relationship between earthquake occurrences and climate change using RNN-based deep learning approach" used deep learning to uncover a correlation between global temperature fluctuations and earthquake magnitudes. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks—known for their ability to model time series data—revealed statistically significant links. The model’s metrics, including MAE of 0.31 and MSE of 0.19, indicated the relationship was not random noise but exhibited meaningful correlation. While correlation does not equal causation, such findings reinforce the idea that something deeper may be at play.

Then comes the phenomenon of ground buckling, already observed as a real-time effect of extreme heat. Buckling happens when materials—whether metal rails or subsurface soil layers—are subjected to intense heat that exceeds their capacity to expand without deformation. In soil and rock, this may result in microfractures, shifts in load distribution, or minor uplifting in patchy areas. Under the right—or wrong—conditions, such deformation could alter fault pressure dynamics, introducing asymmetrical stress distribution in previously balanced fault lines. And because seismic energy builds up over long periods, even a small redistribution of stress can act as the final nudge that initiates a quake.

This line of thinking aligns with previous research into non-tectonic earthquake triggers. It's already known that large reservoirs, rapid snowmelt, glacial retreat, and even the extraction or injection of fluids into the ground can cause earthquakes. If these relatively modest interventions can tip the scale, it’s entirely plausible that prolonged environmental shifts caused by climate change could do the same—on a wider, more sustained basis.

In summary, while climate change may not be directly causing earthquakes in the classic tectonic sense, there is a growing body of evidence suggesting it could be altering surface and near-surface conditions in ways that act as secondary triggers. Earthquake-prone regions under persistent geological tension may be especially vulnerable. The combination of extreme heat, humidity-driven soil changes, surface expansion and contraction, and even subtle ground buckling, could create the ideal conditions for faults to release built-up energy. It is, therefore, not just sea levels we should be worried about rising—but also the possibility that Earth’s growing fever may eventually shake us to our core.