Hope is something that really thrives in struggling communities and Nigeria is one of them. Gambling is one of the few things that gives that much hope but it's a trick because that is exactly what makes the country the target audience of betting companies.

You might say "but but, I know a, b c, d that won 100k, 2M, 50M etc. That's exactly how they hook you. If you're still reading up to this point, you probably need an explanation to why "you cannot win". The next few paragraphs will give you an Idea. A bit technical but keep up with me.

Basic Math That Betting Companies Exploit

Imagine you have a coin. Two sides, heads and tails. If you had to bet on either side, you have 50% chance of winning. In betting terms, this is exactly 2.00 odds (100/50 = 2).

What this means on a high level is, if you bet on either side randomly for a long time, you'll likely be approximately 50% correct. Which means you'll be break-even (you lose nothing or gain nothing). This simple math is important because this is the foundation of how sport betting companies have an edge against you and make money.

You can even be 5 consecutive times wrong or correct at any point but If you keep going, you will find this evens out over time. Now back to betting companies. Here's how they make money and how they rob you.

From this simple coin flip, what they do is, rather than give you 2.00 odds for both sides, they will give you say 1.80 odds for heads and say 1.80 odds for tails. What this means is, if you do the same thing as before, bet a lot of times randomly, You will still be ~50% correct, but this time, you're working with 1.80 odds and this is significant because you will still be working away with a loss in funds.

Normal Coin Flip:

Initial starting amount: #10
Flips: 10
Wins: 5
Loss: 5
Odds: 2.0
Final Amount: #10 (5 wins * 2.0 odds per win)
Profit/Loss: 0 (Final amount - Initial Amount)

Betting Coin Flip:

Initial starting amount: #10
Flips: 10
Wins: 5
Loss: 5
Odds: 1.8
Final Amount: #9 (5 wins * 1.8 odds per win)
Profit/Loss: -1 (Final Amount - Initial Amount)

This is even worse since you're mostly combining odds. Which means you taking even higher risks and getting compounding worse odds.

Bet companies employ quantitative engineers and analysts to take as much data as possible to calculate the accurate odds of outcome and give you something worse.

Winners Get Banned, Punters Lie

That being said, I'll admit there are outliers: the top 1% of people with sufficient skill and experience and an extra edge (more information about the market, insider info, etc.). These people can win consistently but guess what?

They only have two options:

Work as analysts for betting companies
Get banned

Once the betting companies find you are consistently winning, and huge amounts, they'll most likely ban you. And it is totally legal to do so. The ones that turns analysts know they are in a better position predicting without consequences.

"But but, what about punters?". As a rule of thumb, any punter that doesn't give you the game beforehand is a scammer/liar (even if they give you verification code after the fact).

Using this simple rule, you'll find out almost all the punters you know will be ruled out or you find out calculating the wins/loses for the games they give out would show they are unprofitable.

Every “I won 100 million” winning image can be faked. Some top betting sites have started to add verification codes to mitigate this but it is still possible for betting sites to fake these verification codes from their end because this will enable the punters convert thousands of people which would mean more money for them.

P.S: Although it’s unlikely for top betting sites since it's straight up fraud and they can get sued billions for it but small, up and coming betting sites can easily do it.*

Betting companies have also employed analysts who predict a lot of games in different markets and they can then give these games to their affiliated punters which they can edit as they see fit.

This is whey you see some punters come up with very long games from different markets which will likely have "close" winning chances but even that, they still lose.

Arbitrage Betting: A Slight Edge

Okay, I know you're probably addicted to it at this point and there's still a way you can get an edge in the market. It's called Arbitrage Betting.

This is a strategy where you find instances where betting platforms give better odds and hedge your bet.

Back to the coin flip example. Imagine this scenario:

Platform A Odds -> Heads 2.2 : Tails 1.7
Platform B Odds-> Heads 1.8 : Tails 2.1

In this scenario, you can simply play both sides with the same amount and you'll be guaranteed to win at least 0.1x of what you bet.

Arbitrage Coin Flip:

Initial starting amount: #10
Flips: 10
Wins: 5
Loss: 5
Minimum Odds: 2.1
Final Amount: #10.5 (5 wins * 2.1 odds per win)
Minimum Profit/Loss: 0.5 (Final amount - Initial Amount)

This puts you in eventual profit over time.

In some cases (like football), it becomes difficult since there's the option to draw. In cases like this, you can simply take the odds as it is without hedging. Yes, it's still risky but at least you're getting a good deal for it.

Of course, it's not that easy to see misplaced odds. You need:

Accounts in multiple betting sites.
To scan thousands of markets.
To be quick to place your bets before analysts fix the odds.

There are platforms that offer arbitrage betting as a service, but they often are paid.

If You Can’t Quit , Bet Insignificantly

Another thing you can do is use "insignificant" money to bet.

They usually say "bet what you can afford to lose" but you see that money you can afford to lose? Divide it by a lot (up to 10 even), and now this is the amount you can afford to lose.

Example:

Imagine you earn #100,000 a month, the max amount you should afford to lose IN A YEAR should be #30,000, which amounts to around #2500 a month. This is as insignificant as possible.

I’m sure you will go:
"That's too small, how can I ever win anything?"

EXACTLY. You cannot win. Why not reduce the amount you lose and still get the thrill?

Virtual Betting: The Worst of All

The worst of all is people who play virtual betting. This includes games like:

Aviator
Coin flip
Virtual football

The odds here are completely fake. There's code in the system that prevents the platform from losing.

In real-time markets, betting companies need to do thorough analysis to find probable odds and reduce it to make a profit.

But In virtual betting?They don’t need to do anything. They just go into the code and set a 40% chance of winning, and that’s enough. It’s that easy.

If you ever play virtual, you're worse than real-time bettors in every way.

DON’T EVER PLAY VIRTUAL BETTING.

Final Words

I know you, who is addicted at this point, will probably not listen to this, but when you lose 80% of your money and no one knows but you, so you just stay in your room quiet, burning inside... you'll remember this post. At least I hope you do.

Sports Gambling Will Ruin Your Life. Just Stop

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